Welcome to BTCM.co! This website is a project with Kent Polkinghorne and myself to explore and profit from this time of economic uncertainty. We will write regular blog posts and once a month produce a Research Letter for subscribers.
What We Will Write About
Check out our Market Thesis. Since you are reading this, you are likely aware of precarious nature of the global financial system. Never before in modern history has the world entered the end of a debt super-cycle with a non-precious metal backed money. In many parts of the world interest rates are negative and governments continue to create more debt that can never be repaid. We explore how all this is unfolding and where we think it's going.
Many are comparing the recent market collapse to the Great Depression, and we tend to agree, with one big caveat - the world cannot fallback onto the gold standard. Gold has been completely captured and tamed by world Central Banks. The only thing out there to act as a sanity hedge is Bitcoin.
After the Great Depression and World War II world powers signed the Bretton Woods Agreement which signaled the beginning of a new monetary order, but importantly it was still backed by gold. It is hard to imagine today the G7 or G20 countries being able to agree on a new monetary standard based on a totally new currency without a neutral backing like gold. We think Bitcoin has a very big role to play in the coming new monetary standard as an outside neutral asset.
Linked above is our Market Thesis, which will guide the topics we write about. Of course, inflation versus deflation versus stagflation is a very important topic. At the current time, deflation in the Dollar is the prevailing factor in the global economy, but we are open to shifting data. We pride ourselves on being asset agnostic, with a unique understanding of money and economics.
The strong dollar leads us into another core aspect of our writing, emerging markets. How will they fair during this monetary upheaval? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks? We'll dive into all of that on a regular basis.
There is also a geopolitical side to our framework. The single most important trend over the last 30 years has been the rise of China and globalization. Many think the CCP's continued rise to dominance is inevitable; we do not. China is going to face a steep uphill battle to continue expanding as they have. The growth inflection point has likely been reached, and without massive social reform, they will be surrounded, geopolitically, militarily, and socially, leading to slow decline.
Lastly, to Europe. We'll be writing quite a lot on Europe and how it transitions to a post European Union world. The EU is a failed project and over the next few years we expect it to splinter along national borders. The Euro might hold on until a Bretton Woods 2.0 type agreement, but Germany, France and England will be at the table, not the EU. Brexit was only the first shoe to fall.
How Our Content Will Be Structured
Our initial model is to keep all of our blog posts free, while our Research Letter will be an aggregation of the blog posts plus investment forecasts on a monthly basis, will be paid. We plan to keep much of our content free for as long as possible, adding more exclusive content as our subscriber base grows.
Welcome and thank you,
Ansel Lindner & Kent Polkinghorne
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