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Our Thesis Framework

This framework summarizes driving economic forces and other macro trends.

  1. A terminal deflation for the Dollar system
    • Characterized by high debt levels and dollar shortages
    • EM dollar denominated deficits
    • Swap lines whereby EM fiat currencies are continually devalued
  2. Bitcoin will continue to expand and encroach on the traditional financial system
    • Capital expenditure in bitcoin related businesses will continue to grow
    • A noteable parallel economy and class will emerge
    • Marginal Central Banks will accumulate reserves
  3. Peak China
    • CCP power has hit its cyclical high
    • China has never been able to project power
    • It's geographically and demographically limited
    • Negative cultural aspects
    • Japan, Taiwan, US containment
  4. Distributed systems
    • Shrinking supply chains
    • Balkanization of international trade
    • De-financialization
    • Shift toward localism
    • Agriculture
    • Production
    • Individualism
  5. European breakup
    • Too dependent on foreign resources
    • Poor defense capabilities
    • Poor demographics and credit bubble
    • Northern European independence first
    • End of the Euro
    • End of the EU by 2030
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