Our Thesis Framework

This framework summarizes driving economic forces and other macro trends.

1. A terminal deflation for the Dollar system
   • Characterized by high debt levels and dollar shortages
   • EM dollar denominated deficits
   • Swap lines whereby EM fiat currencies are continually devalued
2. Bitcoin will continue to expand and encroach on the traditional financial system
   • Capital expenditure in bitcoin related businesses will continue to grow
   • A noteable parallel economy and class will emerge
   • Marginal Central Banks will accumulate reserves
3. Peak China
   • CCP power has hit its cyclical high
   • China has never been able to project power
   • It's geographically and demographically limited
   • Negative cultural aspects
   • Japan, Taiwan, US containment
4. Distributed systems
   • Shrinking supply chains
   • Balkanization of international trade
   • De-financialization
   • Shift toward localism
   • Agriculture
   • Production
   • Individualism
5. European breakup
   • Too dependent on foreign resources
   • Poor defense capabilities
   • Poor demographics and credit bubble
   • Northern European independence first
   • End of the Euro
   • End of the EU by 2030